Sunday, December 03, 2006

Early Poll

Yes, polls frequently mean nothing, but this is an interesting one nonetheless.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20061203/libs_poll_061203/20061203

My favourite sections from the article are this:

"'Stephane Dion is a little like (former Liberal prime minister) Jean Chretien. The media and elites always underestimated Chretien, but he identified with people on Main Street,' Fife said."

And this:

"In Dion's home province, 62 per cent found Dion a good choice while 29 per cent said he was a poor one."

I definitely think Dion stands a great chance whenever the next election is.


Though, reading the entire article leads me to why I dislike polls:

- The margin of error for the national poll was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- The margin of error for the Quebec subset, which had a sample size of 247, was plus or minus 6.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
- The margin of error for the Ontario subset, which had a sample size of 379, was plus or minus 5.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error in Ontario and Quebec is pretty large.

Either way, this is positive news.

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